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E.T. Counter |
E.T. Counter
addresses to (hobby) astronomers, sci-fi fans and all other scientifically interested
people. It calculates, among other things, the number of advanced civilizations that
currently exist in our galaxy, based on your own specifications and assumptions. The
algorithm is inspired by Isaac Asimov and the Green Bank formula. Have a look at the ZDNet Software Library Review of E.T. Counter. E.T. Counter was also reviewed and published by the renown German computer magazine c't. |
Fermi’s Questions
Jerry Pournelle, old-established science-fiction author and computer magazine BYTE columnist, felt reminded of one of “Fermi’s Questions” when he learned about E.T. Counter. This is what he told me:
Enrico Fermi, Italian Nobel physicist who built the first self-sustaining chain reaction in the old stadium at the University of Chicago, used to have his graduate students over. He was famous for “Fermi questions” which you could answer without looking up data, such as “how many hairs on a human head”. [...] The most famous Fermi question was “Where are they?” |
Assume a number of stars in the galaxy, a low number that have planets, of those habitable, of those older than Earth, of those a probability of life which can be very low, of those how many have a million years of civilization longer than we have.. etc. You still get a large number, so where are they? Speculation has ranged from “they’re here and we’re them” to “they’re all happy with virtual reality and don’t travel any more” to Sagan’s “they bombed themselves dead.” |
Author’s Notes
Nearly everybody has heard about the enormous dimensions of the universe and its countless stars. The idea was born that it is highly likely that we are not alone, that earth is not the only inhabited planet and that humanity is not the only advanced (?) civilization. Large projects such as SETI have been undertaken in order to make contact to extraterrestrial beings, without success until now. Some of us assume that aliens already have visited earth or still visit it, but the final proof is missing. E.T. Counter can help us to evaluate the aforementioned assumptions. |
Life could be a unique precious gift to the solar system, but it is also conceivable that the galaxy is teeming with life. Lacking a possibility to travel faster than light, how likely is it that we are visited by aliens in view of astronomical distances? How likely is it that we will receive signals from extraterrestrial intelligences, let alone establish a bidirectional contact? How likely is it that we will find an earth-like planet around a nearby star and we will be able to colonize it in the future? E.T. Counter gives us an idea and offers to experiment with different assumptions. |